The Seventh Sense

Bad Bird Flu News

Not good news:

Tests on a father diagnosed with bird flu in China show he probably caught the disease from his dying son.

Scientists are concerned that if the virus evolves to pass easily from human to human millions could be at risk.

A genetic analysis of the Chinese case published in The Lancet found no evidence to suggest the virus had gained that ability.

But an expert has warned that failure to control outbreaks of disease in poultry is fuelling the risk to humans.

Note the word “easily.” It’s only a matter of time before the virus mutates to that point.

The Coming Pandemic

I haven't written in a while about the Avian Flu -- mostly because it looked like it was under check.  You know, a bunch of Asians french-kissing chickens.  The virus wasn't something likely to spread from human to human.

Except...

Oh, crap:

A mathematical analysis has confirmed that H5N1 avian influenza spread from person to person in Indonesia in April, U.S. researchers reported on Tuesday.

They said they had developed a tool to run quick tests on disease outbreaks to see if dangerous epidemics or pandemics may be developing.

Health officials around the world agree that a pandemic of influenza is overdue, and they are most worried by the H5N1 strain of avian influenza that has been spreading through flocks from Asia to Africa.

It rarely passes to humans, but since 2003 it has infected 322 people and killed 195 of them.

Most have been infected directly by birds. But a few clusters of cases have been seen and officials worry most about the possibility that the virus has acquired the ability to pass easily and directly from one person to another. That would spark a pandemic.

The sucker has mutated.  It's deadly.  There is no known vaccine.

Don't panic.

Bird Flu Update

"Whatever happened to the bird flu?" my mother asked me when I was up for Christmas. "Wasn't that supposed to be the next big thing to kill us all?"

I pondered the question and bluffed an answer, laced with cynicism: "Oh, it's still around.  In fact, it's worse.  You don't hear about it on the news because it's not as much of a 'grabber' when compared to some missing blond teenager, or the latest antics of Tom Cruise."

Turns out I was right:

Bird flu killed three members of a family in Egypt, pushing the number of fatalities worldwide this year to 79, more than reported in the previous three years combined.

***

The H5N1 virus is known to have infected 261 people in 10 countries in the past three years, killing 157 of them, WHO said yesterday. Last year, 42 fatalities were confirmed, after 32 in 2004 and four in 2003. Six of every 10 reported cases have been fatal and a majority of cases has occurred among children and young adults.

The article goes on to explain that while fatalities have gone up, actual infections have gone down recently:

Since July, 26 human cases have been reported in four countries, compared with 88 infections in eight countries in the first half of the year.

But this dropoff in the last half of 2006 is not necessarily something to celebrate.  There were also similar dropoffs in the last halves of 2005 and 2004:

A few slow months in cases doesn't mean that the threat of pandemic is at an end, said Peter Sandman, a risk communication specialist in Princeton, New Jersey.

"When you install a smoke alarm in your house and then go a year without a fire, that doesn't mean you were foolish to install a smoke alarm,'' said Sandman, who consults to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on pandemic communication. "It means it's time to change the batteries.''

Now, some may wonder: "Wait a second.... we're only talking about 261 infections in the past three years?  This isn't an epidemic that I sholud worry about!"

Well, perhaps.  But just because we didn't have a category 5 hurricane this year doesn't mean we're never going to see another Katrina.  And, as DemFromCT explains, even the pandemic influenza of 1918 started off as a few fatalities per year.

An ounce of prevention and all that....

Bird Flu Update

Look, I've blogged about this subject before, so obviously I'm concerned.  But I don't think we need to instill panic:

In a remarkable speech over the weekend, Secretary of Health and Human Services Michael Leavitt recommended that Americans start storing canned tuna and powdered milk under their beds as the prospect of a deadly bird flu outbreak approaches the United States.

Ready or not, here it comes.

Storing canned tuna under the bed?  This is what our government is telling us to do?

I'm sure the people at "Chicken Of The Sea" will be grateful for the panic shopping, but are probably huddling right now in the conference rooms to give serious consideration to a name change for their product.

It is being spread much faster than first predicted from one wild flock of birds to another, an airborne delivery system that no government can stop.

"There's no way you can protect the United States by building a big cage around it and preventing wild birds from flying in and out," U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Michael Johanns said.

I have an idea.  How about Minutemen?  Why don't they guard our borders?  Dick Cheney, an avid bird hunter, can teach them to shoot.

No, wait.  Maybe not that last part.

U.S. spy satellites are tracking the infected flocks, which started in Asia and are now heading north to Siberia and Alaska, where they will soon mingle with flocks from the North American flyways.

"What we're watching in real time is evolution," said Laurie Garrett, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations. "And it's a biological process, and it is, by definition, unpredictable."

***

Even on a model farm, ABC News saw a pond just outside the protected barns attracting wild geese.

It is the droppings of infected waterfowl that carry the virus.

Okay.  Well, so much for the pool this summer.  Shit.

The bird flu virus, to date, is still not easily transmitted to humans. There have been lots of dead birds on three continents, but so far fewer than 100 reported human deaths.

But should that change, the spread could be rapid.

ABC News has obtained a mathematical projection prepared by federal scientists based on an initial outbreak on an East Coast chicken farm in which humans are infected. Within three months, with no vaccine, almost half of the country would have the flu.

But, of course, the most powerful nation in the world has the best health care system in the world, so there's no need to panic, right?  Right?

Anyway, here's a handy dandy fact sheet (click on it to enlarge):

Have a nice day.

Bird Flu Hits The Americas

I told you, it's coming.

Now, so far, "the Americas" means the Bahamas, and so far, the flu hasn't leapt to anything other than birds.  But it's not going away.

Cat In Germany Has Bird Flu

This menace is getting closer and closer every week it seems:

BERLIN - The deadly strain of bird flu has been found in a cat in northern Germany, the first time the virus has been identified in the country in an animal other than a bird, a national lab said Tuesday.

The cat was found on the northern island of Ruegen, where most of the more than 100 wild birds infected by the H5N1 strain have been found, the Friedrich Loeffler institute said.

Bird Flu Getting Closer

The avian flu has moved from third world countries to second world countries.  Specifically, it's arrived in Germany.  Only two swans affected so far, but it's only a matter of time.

I have to run to the ATM machine and stock up on canned goods.

Our Mayor Freaked Out Over Bird Flu

From today's Winston-Salem Journal:

Mayor Allen Joines said that mayors from cities nationwide who attended a conference in Washington are getting sobering information about the threat of a bird-flu pandemic in the United States.

"It's not a question of if it's going to come, it's a question of when it will hit," he said.

And when it does, it could affect 15 percent to 35 percent the U.S. population, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In Winston-Salem, that would mean that 28,544 to 66,604 people would be affected, according to the latest Census figures, which show the city with a population of 190,299.

That's it.  I'm moving to Kernersville.

A Public Service Message From The Editors of No, You Can't Have A Pony

Do not kiss your dying chickens.

This has been a public service message from the Editors of No, You Can't Have a Pony.

Better Early Than Late

I was watching a Tivo recording of Bill Maher's HBO show from last Friday.  I forget now what the topic was, but one of the panelists noted that Bush has such low expectations now (even from his supporters) that when he does something even half-way  right, everybody tends to applaud and praise him.  You know, as if he is a child who says -- for the first time -- "excuse me" after he burps.

So I originally wanted to be magnanimous and applaud Bush for taking a pre-emptive stance on this bird flu thing well before it strikes.  After all, the federal should prepare for things like this, rather than scramble around in a Katrina-like sideshow after the disaster strikes.

But the thing is, by praising Bush for doing the minimum of what is expected from a leader, I play into the "lower expectations" game.

That said, I'm pleased that -- at least on this issue  -- Bush seems to be forward-thinking:

President Bush said Tuesday that his flu pandemic plan calls for investing in technology for greater vaccine production and breaking down barriers to bring it online quicker.

In a speech at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland, Bush said the plan provides funding for early detection, containment and treatment of an outbreak.

The strategy also calls for improving the process of creating flu vaccines and stockpiling antiviral drugs.

Let's hope it's not political posturing, and we actually see some plans being implemented.

UPDATE:  Yeah, I figured this was the angle: Rumsfeld has made $1 million dollars off the flu vaccine.